Oral Oncology
Volume 39, Issue 5 , Pages 470-475, July 2003

Is there a natural limit of the transformation rate of oral leukoplakia?

  • Christian Scheifele

      Affiliations

    • Corresponding Author InformationCorresponding author at: Zentrum für Zahnmedizin, Augustenburger Platz 1, 13353 Berlin, Germany. Tel.: +49-30-450-562-604; fax: +49-30-450-562-901
    • ,
  • Peter A Reichart

Department of Oral Surgery and Dental Radiology, Campus Virchow, Medical Faculty Charité, Humboldt University, Augustenburger Platz 1, 13353 Berlin, Germany

Received 20 November 2002; accepted 23 December 2002.

Abstract 

Recent reviews described a cumulative risk of 0–38% of oral leukoplakias (OL) to transform into oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). The annual transformation rate (ATR) of OL into OSCC amounted up to 6.3%. To elucidate epidemiological consequences of varying ATR. Variations of the prevalence (1–2%) and ATR (0.5–4%) of OL were used to compute the proportional incidences of OSCC developing in OL. These were compared to the actual incidences of OSCC excerpted from European cancer registries. A ratio <50% of predicted to actual incidence overall indicated a plausible ATR. With an ATR⩾3%, the predicted incidences of OSCC would exceed the reported incidences in all countries. With an ATR⩽1%, the ratio of OSCC developed in OL to OSCC overall would be always lower than 50%. Based on present data, it was concluded that the ATR of OL into OSCC should not exceed 1%.

Keywords:  Oral leukoplakia, Squamous cell carcinoma, Neoplastic cell transformation, Logistic models, Risk assessment

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PII: S1368-8375(03)00006-X

doi:10.1016/S1368-8375(03)00006-X

Oral Oncology
Volume 39, Issue 5 , Pages 470-475, July 2003

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